New vote tallies have been issued by Los Angeles County both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon, adding around 1,800 votes in total, and about 7% to the total counted.

The latest update was issued Thursday, Nov. 7, at 4:34PM.

The updated counts do not reshape any Manhattan Beach city races.

Among the 6 city council candidates vying for 3 seats, there remains a relatively small margin between current 3rd-place candidate Steve Charelian and 4th-place candidate Karen Komatinsky.

Charelian, who served recently as city finance director, holds a 541-vote lead over Komatinsky, a former school board member. The gap has narrowed by just 18 votes since the first overnight totals were issued by L.A. County immediately after Election Day.

Graphs of current results are immediately below, with discussion of voter turnout at the end.

City Council Race (3 Seats)

The city council race has two runaway favorites, incumbent Joe Franklin and newcomer Nina Tarnay.

Note: In our chart below, the lighter shade of orange on top of each main bar shows the number of votes added to each candidate's tally since the first overnight results.

As noted above, the race for the 3rd and final seat is closer, although Steve Charelian's current lead (541) would be difficult to overcome, given the number of ballots outstanding and the need for the remaining ballots to skew heavily toward Karen Komatinsky. 

Measure MMB Improves, Winning Strongly

A city-sponsored initiative, Measure MMB, slightly improved its vote share in the latest counts, going from 56% "yes" to 57%. 

Measure MMB will increase the sales tax by 1/2 cent to pay for infrastructure and other needs. It needs only 50%-plus-one to pass.

Measure RLS Maintains Nearly 2-to-1 Lead

Measure RLS would "repair local schools" by extending current bond assessments, generating approximately $200 million over time. Supporters argued that the measure amounted to a continuation of existing charges, and not a tax increase.

Measure RLS needs a 55% supermajority to pass, but it has been far surpassing that threshold, holding onto a 65% "yes" vote.

State Proposition 2, meanwhile, holds a strong lead of 57% "yes," needing only a simple majority to pass. That measure proposes a $10 billion state bond to be used for school repairs and infrastructure. Measure RLS proponents stated during the campaign that Prop. 2 could bring matching funds to Manhattan Beach in excess of $50 million with the passage of Measure RLS.

Other Races of Local Interest

The city ballot technically had a race for City Treasurer, featuring current treasurer Tim Lilligren as the only candidate. He's now up to 13,097 votes.  

How Many Ballots Are Left to Count?

Manhattan Beach has 26,679 registered voters. MB News estimates that the total number of ballots counted so far by L.A. County represents about 66% of all those voters.

The county does not provide breakdowns of ballots cast by city at this time – only after the election is certified. Measure MMB has tallied 16,798 total votes so far, and Measure RLS has 16,998. These totals represent 62.9-63.7% of all local registered voters. Past election data suggest that 2-3% of voters who cast a ballot will skip even these vital local measures. This is the basis for our estimate of about 66% being counted so far. 

Also notable is the fact that tallies for the Nov. 2022 election increased by 31% between the initial overnight counts and the final certification of results. We estimated that the overnight counts this year represented 60% of local voters.

The big unknown as to how many ballots remain is what the overall turnout will prove to be for Manhattan Beach for this election. Past presidential-year ballots have seen extremely high turnout among Manhattan Beach voters (another reason to be proud of MB!):

Nov. 2008: 90.7%

Nov. 2012: 84.4%

Nov. 2016: 81.1%

Nov. 2020: 87.5%

Assuming that turnout this year falls between these totals from past years, the total number of ballots outstanding to be counted for Manhattan Beach would be between 4,000-6,500 at this time.